bongsmoke.cloud
The Project Graveyard

Here lie the side projects.
All of them 87% done.

Every stone here was going to be finished this weekend. The estimator below tells you when yours joins them: to the day, in days, and in JD.

Estimate my half-lifeWalk the grounds

bongsmoke.cloud

2026 – ??%

Status: alive. Suspicious.

cause pending review

mourners present: 1 (you)

Plot reserved. Deposit paid in JD.

Side-Project Half-Life Estimator

How long does your idea have?

Describe the project as it stood the night you had the idea. If there has been a first commit, say how long ago, and the curve will show you where you are. Nothing you type leaves this tab.

not yet

Zero if it is still an idea. It is still an idea.

24 h

Including the shower. Especially the shower.

3

Evaluated. Not chosen.

4

Each one will ask how it is going.

Decisions already made
Current mode

Half-life of motivation

4.5days

= 4,320 JD at 90 s per Jimmy Dean

87% done, forever, on …

Motivation left after one week
34%
6,720 JD from now
From first commit to 87%
33 days
32,151 JD
Projected cause of death
Told everyone
“Everyone asked how it was going. It was not.”
Decay curveMotivation halves every 4.5 days. Completion rises toward 87% and reads 87% permanently after 33 days. Today, day 0: 100% motivation left, 0% done.025507510005101520253035days since first commit →percentP∞ = 87%t½87%, forevertoday

Obituary, written in advance

  1. day 00%First commit. "Initial commit."
  2. day 444%Half the motivation is gone. The README grows a Roadmap section.
  3. day 1376%Last feature. Commits become "wip", "wip", "fix wip".
  4. day 2284%Dependabot is now the primary contributor.
  5. day 3387%87%, forever. The domain renews anyway.

Half-life 4.5 days. 87% forever after 33 days. Cause of death: Told everyone.

Adds a stone to the grounds below, in this tab’s memory only. Nothing is stored and nothing is sent. It will be forgotten when you close the tab, as is tradition.

Preprint 4:20.0087 [cs.PR]Status: Perpetually Draft

On the Half-Life of Side Projects

A. Nonymous1, A. Nonymous2
1The Couch   2Seventeen Browser Tabs  ·  Department of Information Anarchy, bongsmoke.cloud

Abstract. We model the motivation behind a side project as a radioactive isotope and completion as the work it does while decaying. The model has eight inputs, one of which is protective. Every project, regardless of input, converges to 87%. The remaining 13% is left as an exercise for the reader.

1 Model

Motivation halves on a fixed schedule set before the first line of code is written:

t½ = T0 · κm · (1 + A) · e−Σ
(1)
Σ = αh + βf + γ ln(1 + n) + δD + ρR + λL
(2)

where h is hours of hype before the first commit, f frameworks evaluated, n friends told, and D, R, L ∈ {0, 1} indicate a domain bought first, a rewrite of something that works, and a landing page. Progress accrues in proportion to the motivation left:

p(t) = P∞ (1 − 2−t/t½),   P∞ = 0.87
(3)

which approaches 87% and does not arrive. Progress bars round, however, so the project is 87% done, permanently, once it is within ε = 0.005 of the ceiling:

t87 = t½ · log2P∞ε ≈ 7.44 t½
(4)
Table 1. Coefficients, fitted to a sample of n = 1 author, which is every author.
SymbolValueInterpretation
T042 dHalf-life of an idea nobody has heard about
κcouch, κsativa1.35, 0.6Slow and steady; bright and brief
α0.02 h⁻¹Hype, per hour, spent
β0.12Per framework evaluated (not chosen)
γ0.3Per nat of friends told; the first costs the most
δ, ρ, λ0.4, 0.6, 0.35Domain first, rewrite, landing page
A1Someone is waiting. The only protective factor known

2 Your project

Σ = 0.48 + 0.36 + 0.48 + 0.40 = 1.72
t½ = 42 · 0.6 · 1 · e−1.72 = 4.50 d

Units: 1 JD = 90 s, the time to microwave one Jimmy Dean Chocolate Chip Pancake Wrapped Sausage On A Stick (or “until hot”). One day is 960 JD. Reviewer 2 asked for a larger sample. Reviewer 2 has a side project.

The grounds

Filed by where they stopped.

22 interred87% median completion0 finished

IDEA2DOMAIN_PURCHASED2README_WRITTEN387_PERCENT6REWRITE3DORMANT3GRAVEYARD3FINISHED0IDEA2DOMAIN_PURCHASED2README_WRITTEN387_PERCENT6REWRITE3DORMANT3GRAVEYARD3FINISHED0
RFC 4:20 §9.1, Figure 7, with the census filled in. SHIP is a valid event in every state and changes none of them. FINISHED is drawn because it is defined. Nothing points at it. Read §9.1

IDEA

Described at length. Out loud. Mostly in the shower.

any% Jimmy Dean (microwave speedrun splits)

2021 – 0%

World record: 1.00 JD. Nobody could beat it, because it is the unit.

cause Solved game

LAN party scheduler

2022 – 0%

The whitepaper had a whitepaper. The party was scheduled in the group chat.

cause Consensus (never reached)

DOMAIN_PURCHASED

Worth 40%, per the RFC. The registrar agrees.

tldr.lol

2020 – 40%

Too long; didn't build.

cause Domain-first syndrome

getitdone.ai

2023 – 40%

The .ai renewal is the only thing that got done.

cause Irony

README_WRITTEN

Installation instructions for software that does not exist.

On record

Project Xanadu

1960 – 80%

The README is a book. A working demo shipped in 2014: 54 years, or 18.9 million JD.

cause Hypertext (the web shipped first)

Wired, 1995: “the longest-running vaporware story in the history of the computer industry”

noteflow

2021 – 80%

build: passing. There is nothing to build.

cause Documentation-driven development

couch co‑op matchmaker

2022 – 80%

README, line 1: "Player 2, press Start." Player 2 went home.

cause Split screen

87_PERCENT

The remaining 13% is the other 90%.

On record

Duke Nukem Forever

1997 – 87%

Released in 2011, after nearly 5 million JD. The reviews filed it here.

cause Forever (as announced)

Announced April 1997. Released June 2011.

todo-k8s

2019 – 87%

A Kubernetes cluster for a to-do list. Three nodes. One task: "finish this".

cause Horizontal scaling of one user

Raytraced Tetris

2020 – 87%

The line piece is photorealistic. It still never comes.

cause RNG

pizzabot

2021 – 87%

Ordered one pizza. Then the API key ordered forty.

cause Worked too well

Steam backlog tracker

2022 – 87%

Tracks 412 unplayed games. Is now the 413th.

cause Backlog

Home Assistant, but for the Fridge

2022 – 87%

Knows exactly what is in the fridge. Nobody asked it before 2 a.m.

cause Scope creep (the fridge had opinions)

REWRITE

Back to 12%. MOMENTUM returns it to 87%, in every observed case.

blog (rewrite #4)

2018 – 12%

Rewriting in Rust (spiritually). One post: "New blog setup!"

cause New framework released

my own static site generator

2020 – 12%

Built to write about building it.

cause Recursion

microwave-timer.js

2024 – 12%

Ported every duration from seconds to JD. Now porting them back.

cause Unit conversion

DORMANT

Six months passed. One shower thought from waking up.

On record

GNU Hurd

1990 – 87%

A hobby kernel from Helsinki filled in for it in 1991. Version 0.9. Doing fine, thanks.

cause Stopgap (still running)

Kernel of the GNU system since 1990. Release 0.9: December 2016.

speedrun route optimizer

2023 – 87%

Found a skip that saves four frames. Took six months off to celebrate.

cause Six months passed

keyboard firmware

2023 – 87%

Waiting on switches. The tracking number was last seen in 2023.

cause Supply chain

GRAVEYARD

Arrived by domain renewal email. Leaves by shower thought, as an IDEA.

thirsty.plants

2019 – 87%

Auto-renews every March. The plants did not.

cause Domain renewal email

game night Discord bot

2021 – 87%

Answered !help with a longer !help. The server was archived.

cause Domain renewal email

sativa focus extension

2024 – 87%

Closed seventeen tabs to help you focus. One of them was its own settings page.

cause Did its job

FINISHED

Defined. No edge leads here. The test suite checks on every run.

Plot unoccupied.

No transition in RFC 4:20 §9.1 ends here, so nothing ever will. The grass is kept anyway.